Why the US-Saudi Nuclear Deal Remains Uncertain Amid Political Shifts

The quick version

The US-Saudi nuclear deal, initially signed with promise, is now caught in political limbo. Former President Donald Trump has linked the deal’s advancement to Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel, a move that complicates its implementation and raises questions about the future of US-Saudi cooperation on nuclear energy.

What happened

In early 2024, the United States and Saudi Arabia signed a nuclear cooperation agreement aimed at expanding peaceful nuclear energy development in the kingdom. This deal was intended to bolster Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure and deepen strategic ties between the two countries. However, within 24 hours of the announcement, Donald Trump publicly declared that the deal should not proceed unless Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords by establishing formal diplomatic ties with Israel. This unexpected condition has thrown the deal into uncertainty.

Trump’s demand reflects a broader political stance linking Middle East security cooperation to diplomatic normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Traditionally, Saudi Arabia has refrained from formal ties with Israel due to the longstanding Israeli-Palestinian conflict and regional sensitivities. As a result, the nuclear deal’s future depends heavily on progress in Saudi-Israel relations, which remain unresolved.

Why it matters

The US-Saudi nuclear deal carries significant implications for regional security and geopolitics. Saudi Arabia’s nuclear ambitions have drawn international attention amid concerns about nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. A robust nuclear cooperation agreement with the US could help ensure Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program remains peaceful and transparent.

However, tying the deal to Saudi normalization with Israel adds complexity. Riyadh’s historic reluctance to formalize relations with Israel means that the nuclear cooperation agreement is now a part of a larger diplomatic puzzle. The outcome could shape the balance of power in the Gulf region and affect US influence over two strategically critical partners. Furthermore, the deal intersects with broader efforts to stabilize the Middle East, including peace initiatives and countering regional rivalries.

The bigger picture

This nuclear agreement is part of a larger US strategy to strengthen alliances in the Gulf and prevent nuclear weapons proliferation. Under the previous administration, the Abraham Accords marked a breakthrough in Arab-Israeli relations by normalizing ties between Israel and several Arab states, including the UAE and Bahrain. Saudi Arabia, however, remained outside these accords, maintaining a cautious stance.

Trump’s insistence on Saudi Arabia joining the Accords before advancing the nuclear deal highlights ongoing debates in US foreign policy about leveraging security cooperation to achieve diplomatic breakthroughs. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is balancing its regional ambitions, economic diversification goals, and international relations amid pressure from multiple sides. The kingdom’s decisions on nuclear development and Israel ties will be closely watched.

What to watch next

Observers should monitor official responses from the Biden administration and the Saudi government for updates or shifts in policy. Any progress or setbacks in Saudi-Israel diplomatic relations will be a critical indicator of the deal’s future.

Additionally, regional reactions—from Iran, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and other Middle Eastern actors—will influence the geopolitical environment surrounding the deal. Iran, in particular, views US-Saudi cooperation warily and could respond to changes in the regional power dynamic.

US domestic politics may also play a role, as political factions debate the best approach to Middle East policy and non-proliferation efforts. Congressional opinions and administration priorities will be important to watch.

Source note

This explainer is based on information from Al Jazeera, CNN, NPR, The Atlantic, and Reuters as aggregated by Google News. The original reporting can be found here